SICC: Preliminary Week Two Scoring Analysis

All right, if you've been trying to keep up with Preliminary Week Two by reading along with the nightly reports here on SeattleComedy.net...you've probably got NO idea what's been going on. The typically lengthy missives about what each performer did each night, dragged out for paragraph after endless paragraph, in a relentless bombardment of words and nitpicky descriptions...completely absent from this week.

So, Alysia Wood...stop whining!

Oh, I'll still be posting the reports on each night from this week and finishing the ones from last week...and keeping up with all the shows to come, if only to annoy Mike Wally Walter to no end for my not going back and posting a report from last year's show at the Lucky Eagle...and because a little bit of Alysia Wood whining can't stop me from taking advantage of the fact that no trees have to be killed for me to write as much as I do...but, that's not the point.

The point is the points.

As the sixteen brave competitors in Preliminary Week Two are about to face their own Midoriyama--also known as The Fairhaven in Bellingham--let's go ahead and give those of you following at home a glimpse into the statistics that will determine their fate.

In other words, let's find out how everyone's doing and what their chances are for moving on to the semi-finals as they're going into the last night of Preliminary Week Two. I'll do my best to explain the math as we go...

Last night, we were given results from the first five weeks of this competition with the magic word "Official" written on them. In a week where there have been two "revised" scores after a top 5 has been announced to a crowd, that's a good thing. So, with these official results in hand, let us look WITH EXTREME CONFIDENCE at the numbers and see what's happening:

* As you know, each performer has received a score for each night--the top judged performer of the night is scored as an eleven--ten for the best judged score and one bonus point for the encore point. Every other competitor's score is less than eleven.
* There are six shows in this preliminary week, but only the competitor's top five scores are added together for a final score. The lowest of the six scores is dropped.
* The five performers with the best five final scores will move on to compete in the semi-finals.

Marcus may have only taken the top spot in the fifth show of the week--at the New Everett Theater in Everett--he has made the Top 5 every single night...and all of his scores are 10+. That puts him in the lead for the week--and, his scores are so strong that it doesn't matter what he does on Sunday, or what anyone else does on Sunday for that matter, he will end the week in first place as well.

His current five show total is 54.23 and his lowest score of the week is an astonishingly high 10.72. That means that 54.51 is the lowest score he can get, because if his score for the sixth show is lower than 10.72, then THAT score is the score that would be dropped and the current drop score 10.72 would be used. If he scores more than 10.72, then the 10.72 score is dropped. Marcus' maximum score is determined by subtracting his drop score from his current total score and then adding the maximum score he might get on the sixth show, which would be 11.00. If Marcus wins tomorrow night, he would get 11.00 points...and drop his 10.72...giving him a maximum score of 54.51.

Because Marcus' lowest possible score, compared to the highest score of everyone else, would keep him in first place for the week--Marcus is, mathematically a lock for one of the top 5 spots--Marcus is IN the semi-finals... Even if he spent his time on stage Sunday night by eating a bag full of cheap microwavable bean burritos and letting the explosive diarrhea to follow be his only performance...he's moving on to the semi-finals. (I've checked the rules and there's nothing stopping a performer from an explosive diarrhea set--although, one might suggest that the rule about picking up your props after your set might come into play here.)

Here, then, is all of the math you need to know to know who is capable of doing what...

PRELIMINARY WEEK TWO:
(FORMAT: name / drop score (aka lowest nightly score) / current (aka minimum) weekly score / maximum weekly score)
1) Marcus / 10.72 / 54.23 / 54.51
(Marcus cannot score lower than 1st place nor can anyone pass him. Marcus is, therefore, locked into the semi-finals.)
2) Andy Peters / 9.52 / 51.26 / 52.74
(While Andy's scores and two #1 finishes are impressive, he cannot catch or pass Marcus' consistently high scores. Andy's top possible placement would be to hold onto 2nd place. Andy's lowest possible placement is 3rd place.)
3) Allyson Smith / 7.45 / 47.97 / 51.52
(After three straight Top 5 finishes to start the week, Allyson has stumbled rather badly in the last two shows--so, she has a very low drop score AND she has to keep a rather low score already. Because of those three high scores, Allyson's top possible placement is 2nd place. But, she's vulnerable to slipping with another bad score and others doing well. Mathematically, Allyson's lowest possible placement is 11th.)
4) Tony Boswell / 9.29 / 49.38 / 51.09
(Note the middle number above. Note that Tony's "minimum" score is significantly higher than Allyson's. Mathematically, Tony's got a stronger claim to 3rd place right now--but once you bring the drop score into play, Allyson's position gets stronger. Tony's top possible placement is 3rd place. With a higher drop score, Tony's lowest possible placement is 8th.)
5) Ruben Barron / 8.59 / 47.83 / 50.23
(Ruben is carrying 3 nights of scores in the "8" range--he'd sure like to drop one of them. Ruben's top possible placement is 3rd place. Ruben's lowest possible placement is 11th.)
6) Brian Dowell / 8.29 / 47.22 / 49.93
(Brian's definitely coming on here at the end. Brian's top possible placement is 3rd place. Brian's lowest possible placement is 11th.)
7) Kevin Richards / 9.16 / 48.00 / 49.84
(If you look closely, Kevin's actually got a strong claim for being considered to be in 4th place right now--as his "minimum" score is higher than Brian, Ruben AND Allyson's "minimum" score. However, he doesn't have quite as much top-end space, as all of his scores have been consistently in the 9's--and one in the 10's. Kevin's top possible placement is 3rd place. Kevin's lowest possible placement is 11th.)
8) Randy Liedtke / 7.97 / 46.38 / 49.40
(Randy's had a schizophrenic week--either 10's or 8's, or worse. The end result is that Randy's got some work to do. Still, his top possible placement is 3rd place. Randy's lowest possible placement is 12th.)
9) Nick Hoff / 8.52 / 46.85 / 49.34
(Nick's been frustrated with his scores over the last few nights, but he's still in contention to move on to the semi-finals. Nick's top possible placement is 4th place. Nick's lowest possible placement is 12th.)
10) Martha Marion / 8.62 / 46.87 / 49.25
(Martha's made her second top 5 of the week with a good showing in Everett, but her score from last night's show wasn't as helpful as it could have been. Still, her top possible placement is 4th place. Martha's lowest possible placement is 12th.)
11) DT Owens / 8.66 / 46.85 / 49.19
(DT is still riding the strength of a great showing in the first show of the week. He'd need some serious help to make it to the semi-finals, but Andy Haynes could remind him that miracles can happen. DT's top possible placement is 4th place. DT's lowest possible placement is 12th.)

So, there's hope for making the semi-finals all the way down to the 11th position. Marcus and Andy are in. Nine other competitors are going into the last night of the week battling for three positions. From DT in 11th to Ruben in 5th, the differential is barely over a single point. (Don't ever tell me that those encore points aren't important.

Now, let's go ahead and pour a little out for those whose dreams have died along the way...

12) Justin McClure / 8.24 / 44.93 / 47.70
(Justin's top possible placement is 7th place. Justin's lowest possible placement is 14th.)
13) Andrew Sleighter / 8.18 / 43.15 / 45.98
(Andrew's top possible placement is 12th place. Andrew's lowest possible placement is 16th.)
14) Gene Renfroe / 6.57 / 40.61 / 45.04
(Gene's top possible placement is 12th place. Gene's lowest possible placement is 16th.)
15) Jeremy Greenberg / 7.48 / 40.54 / 44.06
(Jeremy's top possible placement is 13th place. Jeremy's lowest possible placement is 16th.)
16) Derek Sheen / 6.81 / 39.56 / 43.75
(Derek's top possible placement is 13th place. Derek's lowest possible placement is 16th.


Let's go back, for a moment, to those fighting to get into the semi-finals:

* Marcus is locked--he's in the semi-finals.
* Andy Peters is locked--he's in the semi-finals.
* Allyson Smith needs to score an 9.42 or better on Sunday night in order to be locked into the semi-finals. A lower score than that leaves her somewhat vulnerable to not getting into the second round. With her very low drop score, a very bad night would be very bad indeed.
* Tony Boswell needs to score 9.85 or better to be guaranteed of a spot in the semi-finals. However, with such a high drop score, he's in a better position to stay in the Top 5 than either Allyson or Ruben.
* Ruben Barron needs to score 10.70 or better to be guaranteed of a spot in the semi-finals. He has the lowest minimum score of those going into that final show in the Top 5 AND his drop score isn't very strong. He is the most vulnerable to slipping out of contention.

If Brian Dowell takes first place in Bellingham, he would need Allyson to score a 9.41 or less OR Tony to score a 9.84 or less OR Ruben Barron to score a 10.69 or less in order to stake a claim to the Top 5. The easiest way into the semi-finals would have Ruben not scoring beyond his drop score and Brian scoring a 8.91 while no one behind him pushes past them both.

If no one improves upon their drop scores, Tony Boswell would make the semi-finals in 3rd place, Kevin Richards would jump up to 4th place while Allyson Smith hangs on in 5th place. Kevin earns that having had very consistent scores all week. Kevin could also battle his way in, but he'll need to do very well and have a couple of the people ahead of him stumble in order to make it in.

And it gets more and more complicated and difficult for those below Kevin--like Randy, Nick, Martha and DT--(and, note that I said complicated and difficult...but not impossible...again, as Andy Haynes will testify to.) If you feel like crunching THOSE numbers, go right ahead. I won't stop you. I will, however, stop myself.

Just remember--there's mathematical chance and realistically likely scenarios...please don't confuse the two.

Nine performers, three open spots. Blood will be shed and tears will be cried, I'm sure.

You've got one last chance to see what these sixteen talented performers have to offer--at The Fairhaven Pub & Martini Bar in Bellingham at 8:30pm Sunday, November 11th.

And Alysia Wood? You know, I love you, Alysia...and I was kidding about what I said about you whining...and, most of all, I'm sorry to make you read so many words...