Typically, going into the last night of a competition week, despite the best efforts of all of the talented comedians who have given their best efforts night after night, it's painfully clear that only a few of the valiant competitors actually have a mathematical chance of moving on to the next week.
As a competitor, you want to go into that last week with some sense that there's hope...that there's a chance, no matter how unlikely it may be, for you to pull off the big last-minute comeback.
As I said, so often, the top five is elusive to all but a few going into that last night of the week.
But...I can't say that THIS week.
THIS week, because all of the competitors have been earning solid scores from venue to venue and the judging has been close the entire time--math be not so cruel. THIS week, FOURTEEN of the competitors in Preliminary Week One have a chance--however unlikely--of snagging one of the top five positions.
Well, ok...actually, 12 of them are fighting for three spots...but still...if the recent NBA draft teaches us anything...it's that even a team with only a ping-pong or two might end up with a top pick--and who knows what havoc the results of tomorrow night's show might make on the expected progression of things.
Let me go ahead and explain the math we're working with here...
According to the unofficial cumulative results...here's what's happening:
- As you know, each performer has received a score for each night--the top judged performer of the night is scored as an eleven--ten for the best judged score and one bonus point for the encore point. Every other competitor's score is less than eleven.
- There are six shows in this preliminary week, but only the competitor's top five scores are added together for a final score. The lowest of the six scores is dropped.
- The five performers with the best five final scores will move on to compete in the semi-finals.
Kyle Harbert, he of the three first place finishes and having placed every single night, leads this week's competition going into the sixth show. His current five show total is 53.98 and his lowest score of the week was 10.31. That means that 53.98 is the lowest score he can get, because if his score for the sixth show is lower than 10.31, then THAT score is the score that would be dropped and the current drop score 10.31 would be used. If he scores more than 10.31, then the 10.31 score is dropped. Kyle's maximum score is determined by subtracting his drop score from his current total score and then adding the maximum score he might get on the sixth show, which would be 11.00. If Kyle Harbert wins tomorrow night, he would get 11.00 points...and drop his 10.31...giving him a maximum score of 54.67.
Because Kyle's lowest possible score, compared to the highest score of everyone else, would keep him in the top 5,--Kyle is, mathematically a lock for one of the top 5 spots--Kyle is IN the semi-finals...even if he dropped his pants and took a giant dump on the Comedy Underground stage. (Unless I missed a "no public defecation" rule in the rulebook, of course.)
Here then is all of the math you need to know to know who is capable of doing what...
PRELIMINARY WEEK ONE: (MATH REVISED 11/6 at 9:58am, due to revisions on the score for 11/4-Bellingham)
(FORMAT: name/drop score (aka lowest nightly score)/current (aka minimum) weekly score/maximum weekly score)
1) Kyle Harbert / 10.31 / 53.98 / 54.67
(Because Kyle's lowest possible score is higher than everyone else's highest possible scores, Kyle is not only locked into the semi-finals...he goes into the last show of the week already knowing that he will be the first place finisher for the week.)
2) Leif Skyving / 9.90 / 52.34 / 53.44
(The best that Leif can do is to maintain his current second place standing. The worst that he can finish is in third place. Thus, Leif is locked into the semi-finals.)
3) Key Lewis / 9.50 / 51.24 / 52.74
(The best that Key can finish is in second place. The worst that Key can finish is eighth place. A poor showing in the next show and impressive showings by a couple of a handful of competitors could push Key completely out of the semi-finals. It could happen--but Key is in the best position of anyone to defend his position into the semi-finals, with high scores and a high drop score.)
4) Mike Wally Walter / 8.12 / 49.58 / 52.46
(The best that Mike can finish is in third place. The worst that Mike can finish is in 14th place. Note that Mike Wally has a lower current total score but is ahead of Geoff Lott currently because Mike has a lower drop score--so, by shedding that score, his adjusted score and possible maximum score goes up higher than Geoff's.)
5) Geoff Lott / 9.11 / 50.22 / 52.11
(The best that Geoff can finish is in third place. The worst, in theory, that Geoff can finish is in 11th place.)
6) Greg Reid / 9.14 / 49.87 / 51.73
(The best that Greg can finish is in third place. The worst that Greg can finish is in 14th place.)
7) Darren Frost / 8.76 / 49.40 / 51.64
(Although Darren thought he was mathematically eliminated after the second night of the competition, the truth is that, in theory, Darren could finish in third place. The worst that Darren can finish is in 14th place. Remember, too, that fellow Canadian Damonde Tschritter went into the last night of BOTH his preliminary week AND the semi-final week in seventh place and managed to move on each time...and he ended up winning the entire competition.)
8) Lizzy Pilcher / 8.23 / 48.84 / 51.62
(The best that Lizzy can finish is in third place. The worst that Lizzy can finish is in 14th place.)
9) Rodger Lizaola / 8.89 / 49.18 / 51.29
(Obviously, once you get into these scenarios--the chances get slimmer as they would involve a lot of competitors getting low scores--however, the best that Rodger could do is finish third. The worst that Rodger could do is 14th place.)
10) Stephen O'Keefe / 9.69 / 49.50 / 50.75
(Stephen's consistency has kept him within spitting distance of the top five, but it also means that he doesn't have much as much room for improvement. Stephen's best possible finish is fourth place. His worst is 14th.)
11) Lukas Seely / 8.17 / 47.65 / 50.48
(Starting the week with two weak scores has put Lukas in difficult straits. Still, his best possible finish would give him a chance to make the semi-finals, as he could finish as high as fourth. Lukas's worst possible finish would be 14th.)
12) Andy Haynes / 7.28 / 46.64 / 50.36
(Andy Haynes could possibly finish as high as fourth place, and, at worst, 15th.)
13) Scott Moran / 8.33 / 47.53 / 50.19
(Scott, like Lukas, is anchored by two weak scores in the first two shows. His best possible finish would be fifth, and Scott's worst possible finish would be 15th.)
14) Jaqi Furback / 8.39 / 47.50 / 50.11
(Jaqi, the winner of the first night of the week, could find herself on the outside looking in without a near miracle occurring. Yet, miracles have been known to happen...and Jaqi could, mathematically, possibly finish fifth. Her worst possible finish would be 15th.)
And now, a moment of quiet contemplation of the only two competitors who five nights of comedy have shaken loose from their desperate cling to the hope of moving on...
15) Adam Norwest / 6.97 / 43.59 / 47.62
(Adam's best possible finish would be 12th, Adam's worst would be:16th)
16) Sharon Lacey / 7.62 / 42.15 / 45.53
(Sharon's best possible finish would be 15th, Sharon's worst would be 16th.)
Back, for a moment, to those fighting to get into the semi-finals:
- Kyle Harbert is locked--he's in the semi-finals.
- Leif Skyving is locked--he's in the semi-finals.
- Key Lewis needs to score an 9.91 or better on Monday night in order to be locked into the semi-finals. A lower score than that leaves him vulnerable to not getting into the second round.
- Geoff Lott needs to score 10.54 or better to be guaranteed of a spot in the semi-finals. Lower scores leave him vulnerable.
But, then again...don't count anything (or almost anyone) out.
Go ahead and laugh right in math's face if you want to...you've got the touch, you've got the power.
And you've got one last chance to see what these performers have to offer--at the Comedy Underground at 8:30pm Monday, November 5th.
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